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Monday, November 15, 2010

Some Thoughts About Derek Jeter

He can take his pick. Any or all.
I've been putting this one off for a while, but I think it's about time that we address this.  As we all know, as things stand right now, Derek Jeter is not a member of the New York Yankees.  It feels so weird to even write that sentence.  Last season marked the end of a 10 year, $189 million contract, the second highest in baseball at the time.  The contract was signed in the 2000-2001 season, 1 year before his contract at the time expired.  So this marks the first time in about 15 years that Jeet has not been on the Yankee payroll.  Don't get me wrong, I'm still confident that he will end his career in pinstripes, but, if there is one thing that we have learned from sports in the past few years, it's never say never.  For specific examples see Johnny Damon on the Yankees, A-Rod to the Yankees, Patrick Ewing to the Sonics, Starks to the Jazz, LeBron to the Heat and Brian Scalabrine to the Celtics.  No one, no matter how big is safe.  This is true, but we must keep in mind that Jeter trumps all of these guys.  There have been a very select few that have ever been the "face of the franchise" like Jeter has.  We're talking about names like Ruth, Gherig, Mantle, Jordan, Gretzky, Favre,  Peyton Manning - guys that have spent (pretty much) their entire careers (or, at least as long as they were relevant) with one organization, and brought championships home.  Add to that some of the figures that Jeet has compiled - notably, his possession of one record that will never be broken - most hits all-time at the old Yankee Stadium.  And one record that 20 years ago, we never would have thought we'd see broken - career hits as a Yankee.  Even more jarring is the fact that Pete Rose's all time hits record is within grasp for Jeet, assuming he doesn't suffer injuries that have a profound effect on his season or career. 

Jeter will die a Yankee.  He doesn't want to go anywhere, and the Steinbrenners don't want him to go anywhere.  The only wild card left in play is his contract.  What do you give a guy who will be 37 next season, and had his worst season of his career, statistically and to the naked eye, last season?  Can you lock a 36 year old shortstop in to a long term contract?  Something tells me that 10 years from now Jeter will no longer be able to play the position he grew up at, despite having a career low (best) 6 errors this season, and winning his 5th gold glove. 
Assuming both parties agree on a longish term contract of 5-7 years, where would Jeter play when his body can't handle short anymore? First base is out, we've got Tex locked in for a number of years, and he is an anchor to that infield.  Same with Cano - young talent and one of the best hitters in the game today.  A-Rod will hang around Third for the foreseeable future, and catcher is not an option (though Jeter would be the first guy to suit up if he thought it was).  This brings us to the outfield.  Lets look at center.  I doubt that Jeter would ever patrol centerfield at yankee stadium if he can't keep up with the action at short.  Besides, Grandy, with his new found power swing will probably be making his home out there until at least 2013.  Gardner in left brings about more to the table than most outfielders on our radar.  Personally, if it came down to him or Carl Crawford, I'm taking Gardy.  He's got a team-friendly contract,  just fucks with the pitchers mentality when he's on base, which he does at an alarming rate.  Plays stellar defense in the field, and has a hose for an arm.  He's also two and a half years younger than Crawford.  That is the definition of a good investment, and i think that Gardner should be a key piece of this team for years to come.  Besides, when it comes to Crawford, who wants to throw a fuckload of money and years at a 30 year old who's game is so tied up in his knees? Remember, the Knicks are not an option. 
This brings us to right field, currently under the auspices of one Nikolai Swisher.  I love this guy, and I think that he is a great addition to our team, even when he's not hitting.  He the only guy who I could say became a true Yankee in his first month on the job.  He brings something special to the team, a spark, and even with a payroll like the Yankees have, it's a well known fact that you can't start a fire without a spark.  Swish had a great season, batting 36 points above his career average of .252, and hammering 29 home runs, while driving in 89 runs.  I think that Swish is a really special part of this team, and definitely carries his weight, but I'm not sure how long he'll be able to keep that up.  Swish is 29, which I would not consider to be over the hill in baseball years, but, let's not forget that last season was an aberration.  Maybe he benefited from his offseason and inseason work with the best hitting coach in the game, Kevin Long, or maybe he got lucky.  I'm hoping it's the former, and that he's able to remain a contributing member of this team both on and off the field, but I'm also thinking that if we see Jeter at another position within the next few years, it will probably be right field.  It should also be noted that Swish has one year left on his contract, with a team option for 2012.
So, now let's say that they find a spot for Jeter in the outfield, and they want to sign him long enough to give him a chance to chase Pete Rose's hits record, which I think the Yankees would want to do.  It's the opinion of the Steinbrenners that every major record in baseball should be owned by a New York Yankee.  I concur.  We've got the years worked out - assuming there is a spot for him in the outfield, and he stays healthy, Jeet could play another 5-7 years, no problem.  In fact, he began a long term training regiment two seasons ago that is programmed to have him playing well into his forties.  What do we do about the money?  Here's my take on it.  Jeet was averaging about $19 mm per season in his 10 prime years.  Do you give him a term-of-service raise, just to show how much you appreciate those years, or do you give him a slight pay cut due to the fact that his production will probably not match what it was in the preceding 10 years?   That's not an easy question, and one that I really cannot answer.  All i can say is that no matter how much money you invest in Jeter, you will get your returns.  Recent polling shows Jeet as the most marketable face in sports.  you can pretty much bet your life savings on the fact that Jeet will generate an additional $35 mm in revenue for the team per year at the very least.  Regardless of what you get on the field, your investment is being reflected positively on the balance sheets.  There are valid arguments for and against a salary that is comparable to what he received last year ($22,600,000), as I've already laid out.  We know a few things.  We know that neither the Yankees, nor Jeter are strapped for cash, and we also know that both parties do not want to offend the other by making obscene demands.  Not only does this make both sides look bad, but it makes the fans angry. 
I think that we might see something like a 5-7 year deal, though I'm not sure about options, at a $17mm/year average salary (with decreasing gains as the contract years progress), followed by a series of short term, Rivera-like contracts (in terms of years).  The monetary figure is more about respect for Jeter than a salary.  Regardless of what he makes, we can bank on his endorsement deals outweighing his salary.  He just wants to know that he is appreciated and valued by the organization.  Both parties genuinely want to see this end well, best case scenario, Jeter retires as a Yankee with the all-time hits record and everybody wins.  The bottom line is that both parties have a responsibility to the fans, ultimately.  We're the ones who provide revenue that pays the contracts, and as such, I'm hoping that the Yankees and Jeter will let their egos take a backseat and work out a deal that is respectful to all parties involved - The Yankees, Derek Jeter and us, the fans.  Then again, let's never forget that this is the world of professional sports, and we can never say never.

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